2. Demographic Attributes

Case Study 1: Aging Population and Workforce Challenges – Japan

Theories and Perspectives Applied to Demographic Attributes:

• Demographic Transition Model (Notestein, 1945) – Population shifts through development stages.
• Dependency Theory (Frank, 1967) – Economic structures influence population sustainability.
• Optimum Population Theory (Cannan, 1924) – The ideal population maximizes per capita income.
• Tobler’s First Law of Geography (Tobler, 1970) – "Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things."

Models/Theories/Laws Applied:

• Aging Population Model – Examines declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy.
• Economic Growth and Population Framework – Evaluates labor force and productivity.
• Systems Analysis Approach – Assesses population sustainability through multiple indicators.

Recent Data:

• Japan: Declining population, expected to fall below 120 million by 2050.
• Aging Trends: Over 30% of Japan’s population is above 65 years old.
• Economic Impact: Labor shortages affecting productivity and economic growth.

Spatial Variation:

• Urban Centers: High concentration of elderly populations.
• Rural Areas: Population decline due to youth migration to cities.

Temporal Variation:

• Historical Trends: Population decline accelerating since 1990s.
• Future Projections: Expected policy shifts to encourage immigration and workforce participation.

Source:

• Demography Is Destiny: 5 Key Findings from 2024 UN World Population Prospects

Insight:

Japan’s demographic attributes validate Demographic Transition Model, while aging trends align with Dependency Theory.

Case Study 2: Youth Demographic and Economic Growth – India

Theories and Perspectives Applied to Demographic Attributes:

• Demographic Dividend Theory (Bloom et al., 2003) – A large working-age population boosts economic growth.
• Core-Periphery Theory (Wallerstein, 1974) – Spatial inequalities in population distribution.
• Dependency Theory (Frank, 1967) – Developing regions depend on global economic structures.
• Tobler’s First Law of Geography (Tobler, 1970) – "Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things."

Models/Theories/Laws Applied:

• Youth Population Model – Examines workforce potential and economic impact.
• Human Capital Development Framework – Evaluates education and skill development.
• Systems Analysis Approach – Assesses demographic sustainability through multiple indicators.

Recent Data:

• India: Largest youth population, with over 65% below 35 years old.
• Economic Growth: Projected GDP growth of 6.5% in 2024, driven by workforce expansion.
• Policy Impact: Government initiatives promoting education and employment.

Spatial Variation:

• Urban Centers: High youth concentration due to job opportunities.
• Rural Areas: Moderate youth migration due to economic stagnation.

Temporal Variation:

• Historical Trends: Youth demographic expanding since 2000s.
• Future Projections: Expected stabilization due to education and employment policies.

Source:

• People as a Power: India’s Demographic Challenges

Insight:

India’s demographic attributes validate Demographic Dividend Theory, emphasizing the role of youth in economic growth.

3. Causes and consequences of migration

Case Study 1: Economic Migration – Mexico to the United States

Theories and Perspectives Applied to Migration:

• Gravity Model of Migration (Zipf, 1946) – Migration flows are influenced by distance and population size.
• Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration (Ravenstein, 1885) – Migration follows predictable patterns.
• Lee’s Push-Pull Model (Lee, 1966) – Migration is driven by economic, social, and environmental factors.
• Core-Periphery Theory (Wallerstein, 1974) – Economic disparities drive migration from peripheral to core regions.
• Dependency Theory (Frank, 1967) – Developing regions depend on global economic structures.

Models/Theories/Laws Applied:

• Migration Flow Model – Examines economic and social drivers of migration.
• Remittance Economy Framework – Explores financial impacts of migration on home countries.
• Systems Analysis Approach – Evaluates migration trends through multiple indicators.

Recent Data:

• Mexico-U.S. Migration: Over 10 million Mexican-born individuals reside in the U.S..
• Economic Impact: Remittances from the U.S. to Mexico reached $60 billion in 2023.
• Policy Challenges: Border security and immigration reforms remain contentious issues.

Spatial Variation:

• Urban Centers: High migrant concentration due to job opportunities.
• Rural Areas: Moderate migration outflow due to economic stagnation.

Temporal Variation:

• Historical Trends: Migration accelerating since 1990s.
• Future Projections: Expected stabilization due to stricter immigration policies.

Source:

• World Migration Report 2024

Insight:

Mexico-U.S. migration validates Gravity Model and Lee’s Push-Pull Model, emphasizing economic and social factors in migration.

Case Study 2: Conflict-Induced Migration – Sudan

Theories and Perspectives Applied to Migration:

• Forced Migration Theory (Richmond, 1993) – Conflict and persecution drive involuntary migration.
• Lee’s Push-Pull Model (Lee, 1966) – Migration is driven by economic, social, and environmental factors.
• Core-Periphery Theory (Wallerstein, 1974) – Economic disparities drive migration from peripheral to core regions.
• Law of Migration (Ravenstein, 1885) – Explains patterns of human migration affecting settlements.

Models/Theories/Laws Applied:

• Conflict-Induced Migration Model – Examines displacement due to war and instability.
• Humanitarian Aid Framework – Evaluates international responses to forced migration.
• Systems Analysis Approach – Assesses migration trends through multiple indicators.

Recent Data:

• Sudan: Over 7 million people displaced due to ongoing conflict.
• Refugee Crisis: Neighboring countries experiencing influx of Sudanese refugees.
• Policy Challenges: Limited humanitarian aid and border restrictions complicate resettlement.

Spatial Variation:

• Conflict Zones: Highest migration outflow due to violence.
• Border Areas: Moderate refugee influx with limited resources.

Temporal Variation:

• Historical Trends: Conflict-induced migration increasing since 2019.
• Future Projections: Expected rise in international aid interventions.

Source:

• Top 10 Migration Issues of 2024

Insight:

Sudan’s migration crisis validates Forced Migration Theory, emphasizing the role of conflict in displacement.