5. Population theories

Case Study 1: Malthusian Theory and Population Growth – Sub-Saharan Africa

Theories and Perspectives Applied to Population Growth:

• Malthusian Theory (Malthus, 1798) – Population growth outstrips food supply, leading to crises.
• Demographic Transition Model (Notestein, 1945) – Population shifts through development stages.
• Core-Periphery Theory (Wallerstein, 1974) – Economic disparities drive population concentration in urban centers.
• Dependency Theory (Frank, 1967) – Developing regions depend on global economic structures.

Models/Theories/Laws Applied:

• Population Growth Model – Examines birth rates, death rates, and migration trends.
• Carrying Capacity Framework – Evaluates environmental limits to population sustainability.
• Systems Analysis Approach – Assesses population sustainability through multiple indicators.

Recent Data:

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Population projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050.
• Food Security Challenges: Over 30% of the population faces food insecurity.
• Economic Impact: High unemployment rates and resource depletion due to rapid population growth.

Spatial Variation:

• Urban Centers: High population density due to migration influx.
• Rural Areas: Moderate population decline due to outmigration.

Temporal Variation:

• Historical Trends: Population growth accelerating since 1980s.
• Future Projections: Expected stabilization due to demographic transition and policy interventions.

Source:

• World Population Prospects 2024

Insight:

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population growth validates Malthusian Theory, emphasizing resource strain due to excessive population growth.

Case Study 2: Demographic Transition and Population Decline – Japan

Theories and Perspectives Applied to Population Decline:

• Demographic Transition Model (Notestein, 1945) – Population shifts through development stages.
• Optimum Population Theory (Cannan, 1924) – The ideal population maximizes per capita income.
• Dependency Theory (Frank, 1967) – Economic structures influence population sustainability.
• Tobler’s First Law of Geography (Tobler, 1970) – “Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things.”

Models/Theories/Laws Applied:

• Aging Population Model – Examines declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy.
• Economic Growth and Population Framework – Evaluates labor force and productivity.
• Systems Analysis Approach – Assesses population sustainability through multiple indicators.

Recent Data:

• Japan: Declining population, expected to fall below 120 million by 2050.
• Aging Trends: Over 30% of Japan’s population is above 65 years old.
• Economic Impact: Labor shortages affecting productivity and economic growth.

Spatial Variation:

• Urban Centers: High concentration of elderly populations.
• Rural Areas: Population decline due to youth migration to cities.

Temporal Variation:

• Historical Trends: Population decline accelerating since 1990s.
• Future Projections: Expected policy shifts to encourage immigration and workforce participation.

Source:

• UN DESA Policy Brief on Population Trends

Insight:

Japan’s demographic attributes validate Demographic Transition Model, while aging trends align with Dependency Theory.