Q7.c. “The global demographic landscape is evolving with rapid population growth in some places and rapid ageing in others.” Elucidate with examples. 15

The Divergent Global Demographic Landscape: Rapid Growth versus Rapid Ageing

The global demographic landscape exhibits stark contrasts between regions experiencing explosive population expansion and those undergoing accelerated population ageing. This dualism fundamentally reshapes economic opportunities, fiscal systems, and geopolitical configurations, with profound implications for sustainable development and international relations.

Theoretical Framework: Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) articulated by Thompson and Notestein identifies distinct stages of demographic evolution correlating with economic development. Stage 1 (pre-industrial): High birth and death rates produce minimal population growth. Stage 2 (developing): Death rates decline through healthcare improvements while birth rates remain elevated, generating explosive population growth—the “population explosion” phase. Stage 3 (transitional): Birth rates decline as education, particularly female education, expands, and contraceptive access increases, slowing growth. Stage 4 (post-industrial): Both birth and death rates remain low, producing population stability or decline. Stage 5 (post-modern, added later): Birth rates fall below replacement level, generating population contraction and rapid ageing.

Most developing nations currently occupy Stage 2 or Stage 3, while developed economies have transitioned to Stages 4 and 5. This uneven distribution creates divergent demographic futures.

Rapid Population Growth: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Expansion

Sub-Saharan Africa exemplifies explosive demographic growth characteristic of Stage 2 populations. The region’s population was 1.1 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach 3.8 billion by 2100—a 245% increase over eight decades. More than 50% of global population growth between 2020 and 2050 will occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 90% of growth between 2050 and 2100 originating there. The region’s median age is just 18 years compared to the global median of 31 years, reflecting overwhelming youth concentration. By 2050, Africa’s share of global working-age population (15-64 years) will expand from 10% to 25%, meaning one-quarter of the world’s working population will be African.

Nigeria illustrates this trajectory acutely. Africa’s most populous nation experienced population doubling over the past two decades, from approximately 150 million (2000) to 220+ million (2024). Projections indicate further doubling to 400+ million by 2050, making Nigeria the third most populous country globally after India and China. The Demographic Dividend Theory suggests this youth concentration offers economic opportunities: as the dependency ratio (dependents per worker) declines and working-age populations expand, productivity increases and per capita income potentially rises—provided employment opportunities materialize. However, Sub-Saharan Africa risks the opposite: a “demographic bomb.” With youth unemployment exceeding 11% regionally and only 24% of new workers securing wage employment, millions lack productive engagement, creating potential social instability and out-migration pressures.

Rapid Population Ageing: East Asia and Europe

Conversely, East Asia and Europe exhibit unprecedented population ageing. Japan represents the extreme case: with 29% of population aged 65+, a median age of 49.9 years, and a fertility rate of 1.21 (far below replacement level of 2.1), Japan confronts severe contraction. The population is projected to shrink from 127 million (2015) to 88 million (2065)—a 31% decline. The old-age dependency ratio (elderly per working-age person) will reach nearly 80% by 2060, meaning approximately 1.2 working-age persons will support each retiree—an unsustainable fiscal configuration. The One-Child Policy consequences for China compound this crisis: though the policy ended in 2015 allowing three children, years of artificial demographic suppression created a “top-heavy” population pyramid where older generations overwhelmingly outnumber youth. By 2050, 33% of Chinese population will exceed 60 years, up from 12% in 2010, creating historic elder care burdens and workforce shortages.

Europe exhibits similar trajectories. Italy recorded the highest European median age at 48.7 years in 2024, with 24.3% aged 65+. The European Union’s median age is 44.7 years, projected to increase to 50.2 years by 2100. The old-age dependency ratio will nearly double from 33.9% (2024) to 59.7% (2100), generating unsustainable pension and healthcare systems.

India’s Demographic Dividend Window

India presents a unique intermediate case. The 2011 Census showed 48% of population in working ages (15-59), with just 31% children and 9% elderly. The median age is approximately 28 years. The Economic Survey 2018-19 projects India’s demographic dividend will peak around 2041, when working-age population (20-59 years) reaches 59% of total population. This dividend window extends until 2055—a five-decade opportunity unparalleled globally—conditional upon generating employment for projected 800+ million labor force workers by 2030. Female labor force participation expanding from 19.7% (2011) to 37% (2023) offers additional dividend potential, though barriers including gender discrimination and childcare deficits persist.

Conclusion: Spatial Inequality and Geopolitical Implications

These divergent demographic patterns generate profound inequality and geopolitical realignments. Rapid growth concentrates in lower-income regions with limited capital, infrastructure, and institution-building capacity, potentially amplifying poverty and inequality. Conversely, rapid ageing in wealthy nations strains fiscal systems and labor markets, reducing innovation dynamism. Climate migration pressures intensify as Sub-Saharan Africa’s population expands amid water scarcity, while developed nations face labor shortages despite population decline. Strategic responses—India’s demographic investment focus, Japan’s immigration debates, EU labor market integration—will determine whether demographic divergence generates conflict or cooperation in reshaping the twenty-first-century global landscape.